Energy Independence as a Result of Industrial Decline, Not Production Growth

Why Gas Imports Fell

Alpha Gas owner Oleksandr Katsuba explains that the sharp reduction in gas imports to Ukraine is not a sign of growing domestic production. In his words, the country buys almost no gas abroad not because it has started producing more, but because heavy industry is operating far less. The current gas balance therefore reflects primarily a drop in consumption, not the results of the production industry.

Industry at a Standstill

The main factor is the state of chemical plants and metallurgical works: they are either shut down or running at minimal capacity. Before the war, these very industries accounted for a significant share of gas demand. Their loss from the energy balance substantially reduced the country's overall fuel needs, so "energy independence" has been achieved above all because the economy consumes far less than it could under normal conditions.

What Counts as Real Independence

Katsuba stresses that a country's energy balance is determined not only by production capacity but also by constrained consumption. Real energy independence, in his view, should rest on developing domestic production and restoring industry, not on shrinking demand. He believes the current low-consumption model should not be regarded as an achievement: what is needed is simultaneous growth in production and the return of industrial demand.